A blog of solar physics
with 5 comments
Following on from my previous post noting the rotating back into view of the region formerly known as Sunspot 1024, we now have a clearer picture:
Sunspot 1024 is over, man
Its just a plage, the end game of a sunspot.
The Sun remains quiet.
Written by John A
July 27, 2009 at 2:14 pm
Posted in Solar Cycle
Tagged with Sun, Sunspot
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Re: Solar Science on What goes around comes around.
It’s been 18 days since the demise of sunspot 1024 and nothing else seems to be in sight.
Has anyone noted anything from the Solar Science community which might offer some speculation as to why Cycle 24 is having such a rough time getting started??
July 29, 2009 at 1:04 pm
Has Solar Cycle 25 begun/solar cycle 24 skipped or combined with 25??? Those questions are making the rounds & are addressed in the followingpapers (which amount to a lot of pattern matching of cryptic observational data mingled with speculation based on incomplete understandings of the sun–what some might call an “educated guess”):
Solar cycle 5 was, perhaps, skipped:
August 2, 2009 at 11:05 pm
There may be a missing solar cycle or not. Its very difficult to tell from the reconstruction exactly what happened because of poor solar records from that time.
As far as solar cycle 25 starting, I’m completely underwhelmed by the sparse data used and the very short time interval, let alone the unlikely claim.
I think the rule is that you have to see a high-latitude sunspot with the correct polarity to call it the beginning of a new cycle, and SC25 is nowhere to be seen – sorry.
August 3, 2009 at 5:59 pm
My review of various solar-related papers, blogs, etc. etc. suggests that the “experts” know a lot, maybe even most of what is really important … but what they don’t know [while perhaps not much] is still very significant. Most analysis seems to depend to varying degrees on pattern matching & extrapolation. Guesswork, in other words.
I think the author of this blog summed it up nicely (Oct 11, 2008; though in a slightly different context): “Now we wait to see what happens next, because I’m not convinced that anyone really has a clue.”
That’s close enough to my sentiments, and seems as good as any….
August 3, 2009 at 11:58 pm
My impression of solar physics is that it is a young subject and there’s a tremendous amount of guessing and extrapolation based on nothing more than a hunch, wrapped in pseudoacademic bafflegab and delivered with a tone of certainty that these guesses do not merit.
There’s some good science too, especially the observations from SOHO and other instruments.
But the predictions of future solar behaviour (other than people like Landscheidt) have been flat out wrong. The only one not wrong is Dr Leif Svalgaard and he’s only not wrong because SC24 has not even properly begun, let alone peaked.
The models are wrong. They are missing something important.
If I was starting in solar science, I’d be excited to try and produce that missing link and make a name for myself.
But as an outsider, I’m remarkably unimpressed with some of the papers.
August 4, 2009 at 9:32 pm
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