Predicting the Future ain’t what it used to be
A quick update on David Hathaway’s predictions for Solar Cycle 24.
Dr Hathaway has changed his prediction once again WITHOUT changing the page that it occurs on (other than the date it was updated), nor with any explanation as to why his previous predictions have been so wrong. It would be nice if he would treat us all to an explanation for modifying his prediction without modifying his methodology.
Here is an animation done by Michael Romayne on how Hathaway’s prediction has changed over time.
Its clear that something so flexible as Hathaway’s predictions cannot have a theory behind them – this is just making ad hoc adjustments. Note also that between March 2007 and March 2008, the expected size of SC24 was reduced – why?
h/t to Anthony Watts