Solar Science

A blog of solar physics

Predicting the Future ain’t what it used to be

with one comment

A quick update on David Hathaway’s predictions for Solar Cycle 24.

Dr Hathaway has changed his prediction once again WITHOUT changing the page that it occurs on (other than the date it was updated), nor with any explanation as to why his previous predictions have been so wrong. It would be nice if he would treat us all to an explanation for modifying his prediction without modifying his methodology.

Here is an animation done by Michael Romayne on how Hathaway’s prediction has changed over time.

Hathaway predictions to OCtober 2008

Its clear that something so flexible as Hathaway’s predictions cannot have a theory behind them – this is just making ad hoc adjustments. Note also that between March 2007 and March 2008, the expected size of SC24 was reduced – why?

h/t to Anthony Watts 


Written by John A

October 6, 2008 at 12:54 pm

Posted in Solar Cycle 24

Tagged with , ,

One Response

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  1. I need, urgently, an image that shows the absolute latest forecasts for sunspot number for solar cycles 24 and 25 – the latest I have is from May 08 and it is already way out of date of course. It is for a presentation in Kentucky coming up in a few days!

    Tom Harris

    November 5, 2008 at 8:30 pm

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