Archive for November 2007
NASA is in two minds about the next solar cycle, and so it’s time to place your bets:
You could approach this as a shoot-out between competing hyptheses of solar variation and watch the fun.
Alternatively, you could choose the Modern Science Method:
- Form clique of friends
- Announce new “ground-breaking paper” to the press. Announce “result” in soundbite form.
- Get papers published peer reviewed by friends
- Go to United Nations and declare “the science is settled”
- Denigrate other scientists who disagree with you as “Deniers” and in league with [insert scary corporation here]
- Praise other “independent” scientific papers written by your friends which miraculously support your hypothesis.
- Repeat the above two processes so that you and your friends get lions share of grant money while your opponents are starved of funding and attention.
- Hide data/methodology so as to prevent replication. Make sure only copy of data is on a floppy disk and never, ever backed up like normal people.
- Start weblog.
- When cornered, declare that “science has moved on”
It could go on for years.
This letter was written to the Greene County Daily:
Each morning I turn on my computer and check to see how the sun is doing. Lately I am greeted with the message “The sun is blank – no sunspots.”
We are at the verge of the next sunspot cycle, solar cycle 24. How intense will this cycle be? Why is this question important? Because the sun is a major force controlling natural climate change on Earth.
Our Milky Way galaxy is awash with cosmic rays. These are high speed charged particles that originate from exploding stars. Because they are charged, their travel is strongly influenced by magnetic fields. Our sun produces a magnetic field that extends to the edges of our solar system. This field deflects many of the cosmic rays away from Earth. But when the sun goes quiet (minimal sunspots), this field collapses inward allowing cosmic rays to penetrate deeper into our solar system. As a result, far greater numbers collide with Earth and penetrate down into the lower atmosphere where they ionize small particles of moisture (humidity) forming them into water droplets that become clouds. Low level clouds reflect sunlight back into space. A large increase in Earth’s cloud cover produce a global drop in temperature.
Some scientist feel they have developed sufficient understanding to predict the intensity of future sunspot cycles. A Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel was hosted on 25 April 2007 with officials from NOAA, NASA, ISES and other agencies. They issued a consensus statement which came to the conclusion that the next solar cycle could be severe, peaking at around 140 International Sunspot Numbers (Ri) or moderate, at around 90 Ri. But a few scientist disagree. A number of well regarded solar physicists are predicting the next solar cycle will be far weaker than the last one.
It’s worth pointing out that even NASA is having second thoughts about this, as I pointed out earlier.
A paper by David C. Archibald published in Energy and Environment in 2006 forecasted a low intensity solar cycle with a peak Ri of approximately 50. A few scientist have even claimed that we might be headed into another Solar Minimum. For the past few months, the actual sunspot numbers have been below NOAA’s lower predicted threshold, approaching zero.
And they have continued to be near zero.
Actually the streak of “spotless days” was recently broken when a single, tiny spot appeared and then disappeared after only a few hours. Nevertheless, September and October had the lowest sunspot counts since the last low before Solar Cycle 23:
I found this page detailing the varying predictions on Solar Cycle 24, ranging from high down to low in terms of sunspots and maximum magnetic field.
Whatever else it shows, it shows that quite a few scientists are going to be proven wrong by Solar Cycle 24.