Solar Science

A blog of solar physics

Predictions of Solar Cycle 24: Clilverd et al

with 4 comments

A paper published in Space Weather in 2006 used a relatively simple numerical model to add together the known solar cycles of various lengths (including the true solar cycle which is ~22 years) to produce this result:

sunspots-clilverd-etal.JPG

Now from my perspective this is ho-hum in terms of solar modelling. The underlying cycles consisted of a wave groups with constant periodicity, something that really doesn’t happen in the real solar system.

underlyingcycles-clilverd-et-al.jpg

In the real solar cycle, the cycle itself varies in length, shorter cycles being associated with climatic warming on Earth, longer cycles (>12 years) associated with cooling.

The conclusion of the authors is clear. Both solar cycle 24 and 25 are likely to be weak, Dalton-minimum style affairs. But will we get Dalton-minimum style climate cooling? Only time will tell…

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Written by John A

September 10, 2007 at 12:22 pm

Posted in Solar Cycle 24

4 Responses

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  1. the range of predictions for 24 are great, here is an unbiased article discussing the prediction

    http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/articles?article=59

    windansea

    September 13, 2007 at 3:44 am

  2. Windansea: Thanks for the link. I think its generally healthy to have different theories diverge as to what happens next, which means that some are going to be disproven by facts that cannot be disputed.

    It is somewhat of a surprise to see how generally unrigorous the literature on solar science is. It has the feel of a very young science finding its feet in a world of competing conjectures.

    John A

    September 22, 2007 at 11:03 am

  3. I found a very interesting summary of Solar Cycle 24 predictions at Jan Janssen’s web site. Interesting commentary, too:

    http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/SC24.html

    I found the link on the SolarAstronomy message board on yahoo:

    http://tech.groups.yahoo.com/group/SolarAstronomy/

    btw, thanks for setting up a blog on this topic.

    Harold Vance

    September 27, 2007 at 6:17 pm

  4. Dalton Minimum by 2100 (if I didn’t get it wrong…).
    Just three weak cycles untill 2030.

    Regards.

    Curious

    September 1, 2008 at 8:49 pm


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